The government of the United States is aiming to alter the regulations for automobile emissions in such a way that will require automobile manufacturers to offer a significant number of electric vehicles. It is anticipated that by the year 2032, almost two-thirds of all new automobiles sold in the United States would be electric vehicles.
According to Matthias Heck, an industry analyst at Moody’s, if these rules had not been in place, electric vehicles would have reached that level of market penetration sometime after the year 2035. According to him, the objectives that have been outlined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are attainable; nevertheless, achieving them will not be simple and will require significant amounts of investment. For the time being, the idea is still just that—a suggestion—and it is possible that it will undergo modifications before it is finally finalized, as Heck pointed out.
The infrastructure for charging electric vehicles and the vehicles themselves will undergo significant transformations over the course of the next ten years. Increasingly, consumers will be drawn to electric vehicles as battery technology continues to advance and prices continue to decrease. On top of that, the government will provide incentives, such as those outlined in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act.
According to Chris Harto, a policy analyst for transportation and energy at Consumer Reports, it is essential to keep in mind that electric vehicles will be different from what is currently available on the market in the near future. They will be different from what is currently available. He also stated that even though the market share of electric vehicles (EVs) has increased to two-thirds, it is not as if EVs will suddenly flood the roadways of the United States overnight. He predicted that by the year 2032, eighty percent of the automobiles on the roads will still be fueled by gasoline; however, the process of purchasing a new vehicle will be different.
According to him, “We are talking about past cost parity, which means that it is going to be the same price or cheaper” in comparison to a car that is powered by gasoline.
As a result, driving ranges will be extended, rapid charging will become less difficult and more readily available, and owners will experience a significant reduction in their operating expenses, according to Harto. It was predicted by Moody’s Heck that the next generation of electric vehicle batteries, which are anticipated to be released within the next several years, will have a range of thirty percent longer on a single charge and will recharge thirty percent more quickly.
Therefore, when electric cars are paired with enhanced charging networks, which is another thing that can be anticipated to occur over that period of time, buyers who are simply seeking for the finest vehicle at a good price will not find it particularly difficult to purchase an electric vehicle, according to Harto.
By the year 2032, there will also be an increased number of electric car models available. “EV equivalents” are currently available for approximately forty percent of the gas vehicle models that are available for purchase in the United States, as stated by Elizabeth Krear, who is the vice president of the electric vehicle practice at JD Power. There is currently an 8.5% share of the electric market.
Krear did not make any particular comments regarding the likelihood that electric vehicles will account for two-thirds of the market for automobiles in the United States by the year 2032. But Krear anticipates that by the year 2026, which is only three years from now, there will be “EV equivalents” for seventy-five percent of the automobiles that Americans are shopping for, and market share will have already tripled to twenty-seven percent. It is anticipated that the market share of electric vehicles will already reach the two-thirds mark before the year 2032 in the state of California, where electric vehicles are more popular and there are more models available.
According to Corey Cantor, an analyst with Bloomberg NEF, the state of California has the intention of allowing the sale of exclusively completely electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by the year 2035. Additionally, the state is well on its way to accomplishing this goal. Therefore, by the year 2032, California ought to have a market share of more than 80 percent for plug-in vehicles, which includes plug-in hybrids. Furthermore, via its sheer size, California is a significant factor in the total market for automobiles in the United States.
According to what he said, “the influence that California has on the entire country is really bringing it forward to maybe a year earlier than where it would be as a result of California’s absence.”
According to Cantor, reaching the threshold of two-thirds of the electric vehicle market share by the year 2032 is not a definite thing, but it should be feasible.
Ivan Drury, an industry analyst with Edmunds.com, stated that the growing number of automobile manufacturers breaking into the electric vehicle market will also be beneficial. There are a lot of people who buy cars who are quite devoted to the brand of vehicle that they prefer.
The statement made by Drury was that “not everyone is willing to jump ship just because it’s an electric vehicle or it has X-Y-Z piece of technology.” ” I believe that when you have something like Toyota, which is definitely a loyal consumer base, they don’t want anything other than Toyotas,” I said.
The BZ4X SUV is the sole electric model that Toyota currently sells in the United States; however, the company has plans to introduce additional models in the near future. Honda, another Japanese brand that has a devoted customer base, does not currently sell any electric vehicles (EVs), but the corporation is preparing factories in Ohio to produce future electric vehicle models. It is anticipated that Honda would launch its first electric vehicle the following year. A handful of electric vehicle models are also on the way from General Motors within the next year or two.
According to Drury, General Motors will serve as an excellent marker for determining whether or not the American market is prepared to receive electric vehicles in the next years. This automobile manufacturer, which has committed to provide consumers with only electric passenger vehicles by the year 2035, will start selling models in a variety of market sectors and pricing points on the market.
An industry group known as the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which is comprised of the majority of the major automobile manufacturers that are currently functioning in the country, has published a statement on its website in which it expresses skepticism regarding the aims and requests collaboration from a variety of government bodies.
“[A] lot of things need to go right for this massive – and unprecedented – change in our automotive market and industrial base to be successful,” the group noted in its statement.
According to Cantor, at some time in the future, additional automobile manufacturers that may have been slower than General Motors to embrace electric vehicles would simply be required to make the transition for economic reasons. When consumers begin to embrace electric vehicles on a widespread scale, it will no longer be economically rational to continue investing in the development and production of vehicles powered by internal combustion within the industry.